Political analyst and former ally of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Segun Sowunmi, has projected that President Bola Tinubu may record a relatively weak performance in parts of the North during the 2027 presidential election.
Speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show, Sowunmi said the 2027 race is likely to be a direct contest between President Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
He predicted that Tinubu could secure victories in about 22 states, while emphasizing that the outcome would be shaped by shifting regional alliances and political heavyweights.
According to him, the President is expected to perform strongly in the South-West, maintain solid numbers in the North-Central, and potentially improve his vote share in the South-East compared to previous elections. He also suggested that the South-South could deliver better results than the South-East for the President.
Sowunmi noted that the North-West and North-East would be highly competitive, stressing the influence of key political actors and financial power brokers in determining outcomes across those regions.
He added that while Tinubu may have an advantage in several regions, his weakest performance could come from parts of the North, where political dynamics and elite alignments may shift voter behaviour.
Using Katsina State as an example, Sowunmi referenced past election dynamics, noting how influential campaign figures and local political movements previously shaped outcomes. He also pointed to Kano State, highlighting the role of major political figures and economic stakeholders in influencing electoral direction.
“The election is between Tinubu and Atiku, no doubt about it,” Sowunmi said, adding that regional calculations and elite influence would play a decisive role in the 2027 contest.