Nigeria must urgently pivot from an economy dependent on raw material exports to one powered by ideas, innovation and the production of complex goods to achieve sustainable growth and long-term prosperity, Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Zacch Adedeji, has said.
Adedeji made the call on Thursday while delivering the maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture of the Faculty of Administration at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State. The lecture was titled “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy.”
The revenue chief warned that Nigeria’s current economic structure leaves the country poorly positioned in a global economy that increasingly rewards knowledge, technology and productive complexity rather than natural resources alone.
“A paradigm shift for Nigeria is needed to move from dependence on raw material exports to one that embraces ideas, innovation and the production of complex products as a pathway to sustainable economic growth and national prosperity,” Adedeji said.
According to a statement by his Special Adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi, Adedeji lamented that despite Nigeria’s size and resource endowment, the country added only six new products to its export basket between 2008 and 2023—evidence, he said, of decades of stagnation.
He noted that Nigeria’s export performance showed little progress over a 25-year period between 1998 and 2023, even as peer countries pursued deliberate strategies to diversify and upgrade their productive capabilities.
“We are not just producing too little; we are producing too little of the wrong things. Growth must be rethought through the lens of economic complexity. It is not about producing more of the same commodities, but about learning how to make new, more sophisticated products,” he said.
Adedeji described Nigeria’s economy as a paradox, explaining that while the oil and gas sector operates at a high technological level, the wider economy remains dominated by low-productivity informal activities with no strong industrial base to absorb labour or add value.
Citing the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, he said Nigeria currently has limited opportunities to diversify exports using existing capabilities, urging the country to study the experiences of nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil and South Africa.
According to him, Vietnam’s success stemmed from a clear strategy of integrating into global value chains, allowing it to acquire technology and managerial expertise while upgrading its industrial base.
In contrast, he said countries like Brazil and South Africa lost industrial momentum due to over-reliance on natural resources and failure to continuously upgrade productive capabilities—an outcome Nigeria risks if it remains dependent on raw material exports.
Adedeji stressed that Nigeria must reposition itself as an active participant in global value chains rather than merely a supplier of raw materials, producing higher-value goods and services that can generate jobs and resilience.
He added that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has begun the “difficult work” of rebuilding the economy to foster innovation, productivity and long-term competitiveness, noting that the journey from potential to prosperity requires clear strategy and sustained commitment.