The equation is though fluid, understanding how the presidential hopefuls in the All Progressives Congress stand in the different states provides a fair knowledge of their chances at the December 10 national convention. Olawale Olaleye writes
Eight days from now, the All Progressives Congress (APC) would be done with its national convention. A presidential standard-bearer is expected to emerge. But it is not going to be as easy. To cross the lines are some critical hurdles of both human and strategy factors.
Already shared with a degree of certainty are the 14 APC states with the governors identifying, albeit subtly, with their preferred aspirants. This, in effect, means the direction the delegates from such states would head is sealed. But these 14 states are not going to play as much a pivotal role as the 22 non-APC states now regarded as the battleground states.
How well each of the aspirants is able to connect with the delegates from these states and harvest the votes thereof will obviously determine who eventually emerges the presidential candidate of the APC.
Basically, there are four candidates on the card but the race appears to be strictly a two-horse race: between a former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The two others are the Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, and the publisher of Leadership Newspapers, Sam Ndah-Isaiah.
Below is a forecast on how the delegates may vote across the 36 states for their choice aspirants. It is in no particular order.
The South-south
Delta: The terrain here is a leveller and so, voting here may be too close to call. Although the battle here is a two-horse race, Atiku appears to have made some inroads into Delta and may come out very strong; Buhari will be able to neutralise such a hold through the influence of one of his strongest backers, Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State.
•Too close to call
Edo: Here, the odds are clearly in favour of Buhari, however with an equally strong Atiku presence. Voting here may likely go 60:40 in favour of Buhari.
•The odds favour Buhari
Cross River: This is purely a pro-Atiku turf with a voting pattern in the region of 70-30 in favour of the former number two citizen. The bit that Buhari may garner here is also as a result of Amaechi’s influence being a South-south region.
•The odd favour Atiku
Rivers: The race here is best described as a no contest duel. It is Buhari all the way and at the very best, it would be 90:10 in favour of the former Head of State. Atiku’s presence here is very weak and understandably so because of the Amaechi factor.
•The odd favour Buhari
Akwa Ibom: Although Buhari appears to have an upper hand here, it can’t be anything above a 60:40 ratio. Some of the recent developments in the state APC, especially the defection of the former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Okon Umana, appear to have altered the equation to an extent.
•The odd favour Buhari
The South-east
Imo: The presence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of the state will help boost the chances of Atiku, being a close ally. It however stands at a 60-40 sharing. One factor that seems to give Atiku an edge here is religion. And for the records, Okorocha is not contesting for the APC presidential ticket.
•The odd favour Atiku
Enugu: Voting here also presents a 60:40 ratio with religion still a factor. Atiku holds the ace here.
•The odd favour Atiku
Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is also present here. It will go the way of Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku
Abia: The God’s own state as Abia otherwise is called is also likely to favour Atiku with a 60:40 ratio. It is still a factor of religion.
•The odd favour Atiku
Ebonyi: The last of the South-east states is not going to differ significantly. Atiku enjoys an upper hand here too. No thanks to religion. It is a 60:40 show in favour of Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku
The South-west
Lagos: It is too close to call but may go the way of Buhari with a 60:40 sharing.
•The odd favour Buhari
Ogun: Buhari is the issue here. Ogun may vote 70:30 in his favour.
•The odd favour Buhari
Oyo: Although with a strong Atiku presence, Buhari will clean up votes here, however, to the ratio of 60:40
•The odd favour Buhari
Osun: Votes here will be hotly contested but with a slight Buhari edge. It is 60:40.
•The odd favour Buhari
Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and the turnout is most likely to be too close to call with a 50:50 voting share.
•Too close to call
Ondo: As it is in Ekiti, Ondo looks like another 50:50 match between the two front runners.
•Too close to call
The North-west
Kano: It is Kwankwaso all the way. While the governor could garner some 70 per cent votes, the rest will be shared amongst other contenders.
•The odd favour Kwankwaso
Kaduna: Buhari is the aspirant to beat here with some 70 per cent votes while other candidates may struggle with the remaining 30 per cent.
•The odd favour Buhari
Jigawa: Delegates here are sympathetic to Buhari. Voting could be 60:40 in his favour.
•The odd favour Buhari
Sokoto: Battle for delegates’ votes here will be tough as both Buhari and Atiku have a neck-and-neck strength which could produce a 50:50 voting outcome.
•Too close to call
Kebbi: As it is likely to play out in Sokoto so will it in Kebbi. It is a 50:50 game.
•Too close to call
Zamfara: Whilst the battle for votes here will be tough, Buhari has an edge that could produce a 60:40 voting ratio in favour of the former Head of State.
•The odd favour Buhari
Katsina: There is passionate home advantage here and the voting is Buhari all the way. It’s a no contest zone.
•The odd favour Buhari
The North-east
Borno: Buhari is strong here with an impressionable Atiku presence. It is 60:40 in Buhari’s favour.
•The odd favour Buhari
Yobe: Here, Buhari has a strong footing that will be evident in the voting pattern. He is likely to poll over 60 per cent of total votes.
•The odd favour Buhari
Gombe: Delegates here are for Atiku with a not-too-bad outing for Buhari. Say another 70:30 sharing in Atiku’s favour.
•The odd favour Atiku
Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Atiku clearly has the upper hand being his home state, so the home advantage will be strong for Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku
Taraba: Delegates here may have signed up for Atiku, perhaps in the region of 60:40.
•The odd favour Atiku
Bauchi: Chances are that Buhari will pull his weight here, albeit with some 60:40 voting pattern.
•The odd favour Buhari
The North-central
Kogi: Votes here will be free for all with a plausible 50-50 sharing between Buhari and Atiku
•Too close to call
Kwara: Buhari will clean up the Kwara votes because of the influence of the former governor, Bukola Saraki, who is believed to be sympathetic to the Buhari cause.
•The odd favour Buhari
Niger: Delegates in Niger may tilt in the direction of Buhari, even though Atiku is poised to fight hard. This is Nda-Isaiah’s home state, and may muzzle some votes given his supposed home advantage.
•The odd favour Buhari
Plateau: Atiku is on the prowl here and is sure to hold sway. Delegates will boost his chances here over and above that of Buhari.
•The odd favour Atiku
Benue: The battle in Benue State promises to throw up some good challenge, however with a 60-40 voting in favour of Buhari.
•The odd favour Buhari
Nasarawa: Indications are that delegates here have the backing of Buhari, but not without some good showing by Atiku.
•The odd favour Buhari