Nigeria generated an estimated N55.5 trillion from crude oil sales in 2025, buoyed by relatively strong global oil prices despite persistent production shortfalls, an analysis of official data has shown.
Findings based on crude oil production figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and price data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicate that the 2025 revenue outturn exceeded the N50.88 trillion recorded in 2024.
According to the NUPRC, Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025. Output fluctuated significantly during the year due to operational disruptions, outages, and gradual recovery in some oilfields.
Applying the average Bonny Light crude price of $72.08 per barrel for 2025 to total production, and converting at an exchange rate of N1,450/$, estimated gross crude oil revenue stood at about $38.23 billion, equivalent to N55.5 trillion.
Output trends
Crude oil production started the year on a strong note at 47.70 million barrels in January, before falling sharply to 41.02 million barrels in February. Output recovered modestly in March and April and remained relatively stable through the second quarter.
The third quarter saw renewed volatility, with production dipping to one of its lowest levels in September at 41.69 million barrels. Output rebounded slightly in the final quarter, closing the year at 44.08 million barrels in December.
Prices cushion revenue
Although Nigeria’s output remained below its OPEC quota for most of the year, elevated crude prices helped sustain revenue. CBN data show that Bonny Light traded above $80 per barrel in January before declining to a low of $65.90 in May amid softer global market conditions.
Prices recovered mid-year and averaged $72.08 per barrel over the 10 months for which official data were available, providing a buffer against lower production volumes.
Gross earnings, not net receipts
Industry analysts caution that the N55.5 trillion figure represents gross revenue, not actual government earnings. It excludes costs such as production expenses, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recovery, oil theft, domestic supply obligations, and deferred crude liftings.
The amount reflects expected earnings by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), international oil companies, and indigenous producers from crude sold in 2025.
Crude-for-loan obligations linger
The analysis comes amid ongoing concerns over Nigeria’s crude-backed loans. In 2024, NNPC reportedly serviced part of its $3bn Afreximbank forward-sale loan with crude oil valued at N991bn under Project Gazelle.
By the end of 2024, outstanding obligations stood at N3.8tn, though it remains unclear how much crude was committed to loan repayments in 2025.
OPEC quota and budget miss
Nigeria struggled to meet both its OPEC quota of about 1.5 million barrels per day and its far more ambitious 2025 budget target of 2.1 million barrels per day. Total oil production for the year—crude and condensate combined—reached 599.64 million barrels, falling 166.86 million barrels short of the budget benchmark.
As a result, the 2026 oil benchmarks were set more conservatively, with projected daily production of 1.84 million barrels, a price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400/$.
Experts: Governance, security key
Economic and energy experts attributed Nigeria’s production challenges to insecurity, policy uncertainty, high operating costs, and governance issues.
Professor of Economics Segun Ajibola said unresolved problems in host communities, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and corruption continue to weigh on output.
Similarly, Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, highlighted insecurity and policy inconsistencies as major deterrents to investment.
Energy expert Dayo Ayoade stressed the need for better governance, policy stability, and lower production costs to restore investor confidence and boost output.
Despite the challenges, analysts note that recent investment commitments—particularly in deepwater projects and marginal fields—could improve Nigeria’s oil production outlook if supported by consistent policies and improved security.