Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM Academy, has projected potential economic gains for Nigeria as global oil prices surge amid the ongoing Middle East crisis.
In an interview, Otunuga noted that as a net oil exporter, Nigeria stands to benefit from rising crude prices, which could strengthen the naira. “Higher oil prices should translate to currency gains,” he said, while warning that broader market uncertainty may limit the upside.
He explained that the continued disruption at the Strait of Hormuz is fuelling fears of supply shocks, pushing major oil benchmarks toward the $100 mark — a key psychological level.
According to him, both Brent and crude oil remain fundamentally bullish and are on track for their strongest monthly gains since 1990.
However, Otunuga cautioned that escalating tensions involving Iran could trigger a global risk-off sentiment, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen.
He noted that this could have wider implications, particularly for Japan, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports.
The analyst added that recent market swings were driven by heightened geopolitical tensions after Iran accused the United States of preparing for a possible land assault, even as U.S. President Donald Trump signalled openness to negotiations. While initial optimism followed reports of possible peace talks, mixed signals and the ongoing Strait closure continue to fuel uncertainty.
In the commodities market, gold has declined by nearly 14 percent this month despite the risk-off environment, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Otunuga pointed to the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report as a key indicator that could shape monetary policy decisions. Economists expect 65,000 jobs to have been added in March, a rebound from February’s contraction.
On technical levels, he identified $4,600 as a critical pivot for gold, with potential upside toward $4,700–$4,800, while a drop below that level could see prices fall to between $4,450 and $4,300. He also highlighted movements in the USD/JPY pair, which recently crossed the 160 mark — a level historically defended by Japanese authorities — warning that any intervention could trigger sharp market corrections.
Otunuga concluded that while rising oil prices present an opportunity for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, persistent geopolitical tensions and market volatility mean investors must tread carefully.