Ogun 2027: The Power Play Behind Yayi’s Guber Ambition and The Forces Closing In On Adebutu

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… As Bamidele openly backs Yayi, INEC controversy deepens and Abuja connections come under scrutiny

The battle for the 2027 Ogun State governorship is increasingly assuming the character of a high-stakes political contest in which alliances beyond Ogun State may prove as important as the candidates themselves.

At the centre of the unfolding political calculations is Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, the APC governorship candidate and Senator representing Ogun West.

One of the most visible national figures backing Adeola is Senate Leader Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, who has publicly canvassed support for Yayi’s governorship ambition.

At an Ogun West Professionals for Yayi media engagement in Ilaro in February 2026, Bamidele urged stakeholders in Ogun West to unite behind the district’s ambition to produce the next governor of Ogun State. Reports from the event specifically identified Bamidele as a supporter of Adeola’s bid.

That public intervention has now become part of a wider political conversation about the interests and calculations of influential actors outside Ogun.

Political discussions around the Bamidele-Adeola relationship have generated claims that the alliance could have implications beyond Ogun.

There are allegations within political circles that both Bamidele and Adeola have strong interests in the future political configuration of Ekiti and Ogun respectively, and that the present alignment around Yayi could serve broader strategic calculations.

However, while Bamidele’s public support for Adeola is documented, claims that he is deliberately positioning Adeola in Ogun to create room for his own future Ekiti governorship ambition. 

It is in record that Bamidele has publicly taken a position in the Ogun 2027 contest.

Another name being mentioned in the political calculations is Femi Gbajabiamila, the President’s Chief of Staff and former Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Political narratives surrounding the Ogun contest have revived memories of the 2015 House of Representatives speakership battle, in which Gbajabiamila contested the position that eventually went to Yakubu Dogara. The National Assembly’s historical record confirms that Gbajabiamila was nominated for the speakership during the inauguration of the 8th House in June 2015.

Adebutu was also a member of the 8th House of Representatives.

Claims circulating in political circles suggest that old political disagreements may still influence relationships among some of the actors involved in the present Ogun contest.

Based on this, Gbajabiamila was also alleged to have played a major role against Adebutu’s candidacy or directed INEC to remove his name, that distinction is important.

However, it is verifiable that INEC’s final list for the February 6, 2027 Ogun governorship election did not contain the names of PDP candidate Ladi Adebutu and his running mate, Yemi Sowunmi-Kolapo.

The published list contained 13 governorship candidates, including APC’s Solomon Adeola, but omitted Adebutu and his running mate. INEC’s published material did not state that the omission was caused by any instruction from Gbajabiamila, Akpabio, Faleke or any other politician.

Adebutu subsequently disputed the development, insisting that he remained a registered PDP member and that his documentation had been submitted to INEC within the stipulated period.

The PDP has also rejected suggestions that Adebutu was not properly registered.

Under Section 32 of the Electoral Act 2026, there is a statutory procedure through which a political party can challenge the omission of its candidate from INEC’s published list.

The issue therefore remains a live electoral and legal matter.

Senate President Godswill Akpabio is another major figure in the Yayi political equations.

The relationship between Akpabio and Adeola is not new. In 2025 Akpabio publicly solicited support for Adeola’s governorship ambition during the Yewa Cultural Festival in Ilaro, urging Yewa people to support his bid for the Ogun governorship.

Akpabio also appointed Adeola chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations in 2023, one of the most strategically important committees in the National Assembly.

Against that background, claims that Akpabio has now turned against Adeola because of disagreements over appropriations which is in view, we gathered from a reliable source, but we would require direct evidence before we present it as fact, which is the real reason why he wants him to leave the Senate. 

Meanwhile, what can be established is that Akpabio has previously demonstrated public political support for Adeola.

Also, Rep. James Faleke’s name has also entered the conversation because of his national political influence and his links within the APC establishment.

Professor Joash Ojo Amupitan, SAN, is currently INEC Chairman. President Bola Tinubu nominated him in October 2025, the National Council of State approved the nomination, and he was subsequently confirmed and sworn in.

There are claims that Faleke played a role in Amupitan’s emergence and that the relationship could influence electoral calculations.

However, available official records establish President Tinubu’s nomination and the constitutional process that followed. Faleke recommending Amupitan is not made known to the public, inside source revealed. 

Hence, the political class, especially the opposition believes INEC chairman would carry out political instructions from him.

Indeed, INEC itself has previously had to reject some political endorsement attributed to Amupitan, underscoring the need for caution when assessing claims surrounding the chairman.

The emerging picture is therefore more complicated than a simple Yayi-versus-Adebutu contest.

There is a documented national network around the Ogun APC candidate: Bamidele has publicly campaigned for Yayi; Akpabio has previously backed his governorship ambition; and Adeola occupies the influential position of chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee in which Akpabio is not comfortable with. 

On the other side, Adebutu’s omission from INEC’s final Ogun governorship list has introduced a major new uncertainty into the opposition’s calculations.

The unanswered question is whether the INEC development is simply the consequence of an electoral-law and party-registration dispute or whether, as some political actors allege, it forms part of a larger political struggle.

As at this time, no evidence presently establishes that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu authorised any political operation against Adebutu or directed INEC to favour Yayi.

That distinction matters because the President’s name has increasingly appeared in political narratives surrounding the Ogun contest, sometimes without evidence of his direct involvement.

For now, the facts point to a rapidly evolving contest in which alliances, institutional processes, legal challenges and national political relationships are all converging on Ogun State.

And with the 2027 election approaching, every move in Abuja could have consequences in Abeokuta.

The real question is no longer simply who wants to govern Ogun State.

It is who has assembled the political network capable of shaping the road to Oke-Mosan and who can survive the battles now unfolding along the way.

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