The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, marking what it described as the country’s fastest pace of expansion in more than a decade.
In its Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, the Bretton Woods institution revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast upward from 3.7 per cent in its June 2025 outlook, while retaining the 2027 projection at 4.4 per cent.
The upward revision reflects growing optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term economic prospects, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions despite lingering structural challenges.
The projection comes on the back of stronger recent performance, with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product expanding by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The World Bank attributed the expected acceleration in growth to sustained expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural output, and a gradual recovery in non-oil industrial activity.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the report stated, adding that services and agriculture would remain the key pillars supporting economic performance.
The Bank also pointed to ongoing economic reforms—particularly in the tax system—alongside prudent monetary policy as critical factors underpinning the outlook.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” it noted.
According to the report, these policies should help boost investor confidence, rein in inflationary pressures, and strengthen macroeconomic stability. Higher oil production is also expected to help cushion the impact of softer global oil prices, improving fiscal revenues and Nigeria’s external balance.
The World Bank’s emphasis on non-oil sector growth highlights the gradual gains from Nigeria’s diversification efforts, with services and agriculture expected to support job creation, price stability, and a broader revenue base.
For policymakers and investors, the forecast offers cautious optimism that recent reforms are beginning to yield tangible results, even as the country continues to navigate underlying economic vulnerabilities.